The Science of Thinking

Alvin Roth and Lloyd Shapely won the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for their work on market design back in 2012, but it is a field that is still underrepresented in economics education. All markets have rules, and how these rules are set influence how the market functions.

Firms are the primary places where economic activity takes place in modern capitalist economies: they are where most stuff is produced; where many of us spend 40 hours a week; and where big decisions are made about how to allocate resources. Establishing how they work is hugely important because it helps us to understand patterns of production and consumption, including how firms will react to changes in economic conditions and policy. And a well-established literature – led by post-Keynesians and institutionalists – holds that the best way to determine how firms work is to…wait for it...ask firms how they work. This a clearly sensible proposition that is contested in economics for some reason, but we’ll ignore the controversy here and just explore the theory that springs from this approach.

The blog post by Marc Lavoie contrasts what he perceives as the two main interpretations of the current inflationary tendencies (the 'excessive demand inflation' story and the 'profit inflation' story) and contrasts them with a third interpretation. This interpretation acknowledes rising profits but argues in favor of a different mechanism that centers on changes in the relative composition of costs.

The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices.